Effects-based Coalition Operations: Belief, Framing and Mechanism

Coalition operations over the past decade exhibit a propensity towards collegial decision-making even in the presence of formal, normally hierarchical, decision-making apparatus. Meanwhile, the US military, especially the US Air Force, is adopting effectsbased operations (EBO) as a method of planning, executing, and assessing military operations that achieves desired effects that attain strategic objectives. EBO forces decision makers to look at outcomes and their explanations more so than on actions taken. Hence, an EBO approach significantly affects decision-making. Both these requirements, collegial decision making and EBO, affect supporting knowledge systems. This paper explores all these implications. Following a short explanation of the problem, the second section describes EBO. The third section contrasts collegial decision-making models with traditional hierarchical decision-making models. This draws largely from work done for the US Air Force Research Laboratory Human Effectiveness Directorate (AFRL/HE). Section 4 presents research on a situation-aware, recognition-primed, variable riskpropensity model of collegial decision-making based in an EBO context. Section 5 discusses the implications of that model and EBO on knowledge base design requirements. Section 6 concludes the paper and offers some areas for future research. 1 Section